Studies on Geographical Distribution Prediction of Cirtus caraleriei in China and Influences of Climate Change
1. College of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
2. National Academy of Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 102600, China
| Abstract: | The species Citrus cavaleriei Levl. ex Cavaler. is an unique wild Citrus germplasm resource with strong cold-resistance in China. The purpose of this paper is to understand the suitable areas of growth of C. cavaleriei in China and the influence of different climate change scenarios on its geographical distribution, and to provide reference for the development and protection of C. cavaleriei resources. Combined with the environmental data of different periods, this paper uses MaxEnt model to predict the suitable growing areas of C. cavaleriei in different periods in China, and uses ArcGIS software and SDMtools to analyze the changing characteristics of suitable growing areas and centroid migration routes of C. cavaleriei in different periods. The average AUC values are all larger than 0.95. The modeling results meet excellent standards. At present, C. cavaleriei is mainly distributed in Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Guizhou, Hunan, Guangxi, Gansu, and Shanxi provinces in China. Under the benchmark climatic conditions, the total suitable area of C. cavaleriei in China is 144.82×104 km2, among which the most suitable areas are mainly located in Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan and Hunan provinces. In 2050, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the suitable area of C. cavaleriei in China will increase by 22.20×104 km2 and 29.80×104 km2; respectively compared with that under the reference climate. With climate change, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in 2070, the suitable area of C. cavaleriei in China has shrunk compared with that in 2050. Compared with the same scenario in 2050, the shrinking area is 81.76×104 km2 (RCP4.5) and 12.17×104 km2 (RCP8.5), respectively. RCP8.5 scenario is more beneficial to C. cavaleriei from the baseline climate to the next 2050 and 2070, the centroid of C. cavaleriei suitable area first moved eastward and then moved southwest, and the migration distance in RCP8.5 scenario was greater than that in RCP4.5 scenario. |
| Keywords: | Citrus cavaleriei; Distribution Prediction; Suitable Area; Climate Change |
| DOI: | 10.57237/j.res.2024.04.001 |
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Received: 4 September 2024
Accepted: 24 September 2024
Published Online: 26 October 2024
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