Projecting Future Global AIDS Mortality Through Multidimensional Reliability Methods
1. College of Engineering, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2. School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212003, China
3. Data Science Group, Beijing Zhongke Lianyuan Technology Co, Ltd, Peking 100000, China
| Abstract: | [Objectives] AIDS is an infectious disease that is highly contagious, can spread globally, has high morbidity and mortality, and poses a huge burden on global public health. The non-stationarity and complexity of the disease makes modeling this phenomenon challenging. Few mathematical models are available because epidemiological data are usually not normally distributed. [Methods] This paper describes a new approach to biosystem reliability that is particularly applicable to multiregional environments and health systems that are observed over a sufficiently long period of time to provide reliable long-term predictions of the probability of outbreaks of highly pathogenic viruses. Conventional statistical methods for multiregional process time observations cannot effectively handle large regional dimensions and inter-correlations between observations in different regions. In this study, the annual number of recorded AIDS patients in all countries of the world was selected. [Results] If public health systems under environmental and epidemiologic conditions around the world are properly managed, the predicted 100-year return period risk level is 2.2%. [Conclusion] This work aims to benchmark state-of-the-art methods, which make it possible to extract the necessary information from dynamically observed patient numbers, taking into account the associated geographical mapping. The methodology proposed in this paper opens up the possibility of accurately predicting the probability of epidemic outbreaks in multi-regional biosystems. |
| Keywords: | AIDS; Reliability; Probabilistic Prediction; Dynamic Systems; Public Health; Mathematical Biology |
| DOI: | 10.57237/j.wjms.2023.02.002 |
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Received: 8 August 2023
Accepted: 18 September 2023
Published Online: 19 September 2023
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