不同气候情境下飞龙掌血在中国潜在适生区的分布及变化
1. 西南林业大学, 林学院, 云南昆明 650224
2. 国家林业和草原局管理干部学院, 北京 102600
| 摘 要： | 飞龙掌血（Toddalia asiatica）具有诸多价值，随着近年来对其开发利用的加强，野生资源正日趋减少。本文基于广泛的标本记录，利用优化后的MaxEnt生态模型对飞龙掌血的潜在适生区分布进行预测，了解飞龙掌血在中国潜在适生区及在不同气候情景下适生区的变化，为其物种保护、资源调查及引种栽培提供理论参考。结果表明，在当前气候情境下，飞龙掌血在中国的中高适生区主要集中在华南地区、西南地区东南部、华中地区西部和华东地区南部等热带亚热带季风气候区；在未来气候情景下，其适生区随气候变暖有向西南方向迁移的趋势，且呈现出破碎化态势；与当前气候情景相比，飞龙掌血总适生区面积均呈减少态势，但在SSPs126和SSPs245情景下其高适生区面积有少许增加，出现该现象可能与碳排放增加而引起的全球气候变暖有关；飞龙掌血扩张和收缩的适生区主要分布于整个适生区的边缘区域，保持不变的区域主要为高适生区，分布于重庆、贵州、广西和广东的绝大部分区域，以及云南、四川、福建、海南和台湾的部分区域；降水量和温度是影响飞龙掌血地理分布形成的主要原因和差异来源，其中bio18（最暖季降水量）和bio11（最冷季均温）为限制飞龙掌血分布的主导环境变量因子。 |
| 关 键 词： | 飞龙掌血; MaxEnt模型; 潜在适生区; 限制性因子 |
| DOI： | 10.57237/j.jaf.2025.01.001 |
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收稿日期: 2024-10-07
接受日期: 2024-11-27
在线出版日期: 2025-01-02
Predicting the Potential Suitable Areas and Variation of Toddalia asiatica in China Under Different Climatic Conditions
1. Faculty of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
2. National Academy of Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 102600, China
| Abstract: | The species Toddalia asiatica (L.) Lam. has many values; with the strengthening of its development and utilization in recent years, wild resources are gradually decreasing. Based on the extensive specimen records, by using an optimized MaxEnt ecological model, the potential distribution of the suitable habitat of T. asiatica was predicted to understand suitable areas of T. asiatica in China and the changes of the suitable areas under different climate scenarios, which provides theoretical references for species protection, resource investigation, and introduction and cultivation of T. asiatica resources. The results showed that the medium suitable areas and high suitable areas of T. asiatica in China were mainly concentrated in tropical and subtropical monsoon climate areas such as South China, Southeast of Southwest China, West of Central China and South of East China, under the current climatic conditions. Under the future climate conditions, its suitable area has a tendency to migrate to the southwest with climate warming, and shows a trend of fragmentation. Compared with the current climatic conditions, the total suitable area showed a decreasing trend, but the high suitable area of T. asiatica increased under the SSPs126 and SSPs245 scenarios. This result may be related to global warming caused by increased carbon emissions. Under the future climatic conditions, the suitable areas for the expansion and contraction of T. asiatica are mainly distributed in the marginal areas of the whole suitable area, and the high suitable areas remain unchanged, which are distributed in most areas of Chongqing, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Guangdong, as well as parts of Yunnan, Sichuan, Fujian, Hainan, and Taiwan provinces. The two climatic factors of precipitation and temperature are the main causes and sources of differences limiting the geographical distribution of T. asiatica. Among them, bio18 (Precipitation of Warmest Quarter) and bio11 (Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter) are the dominant environmental variables limiting the distribution of T. asiatica. |
| Keywords: | Toddalia asiatica; MaxEnt Model; Potential Suitable Area; Limiting Factor |
基金
| 1. | 国家自然科学基金地区基金项目 (31360048, 31400181) |
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