基于多维劣度融合的变压器健康状态评估及寿命预测研究
1. 巨邦集团有限公司, 浙江乐清 325603
2. 中国能源建设集团安徽省电力设计院有限公司, 安徽合肥 230601
3. 南京航空航天大学, 自动化学院, 江苏南京 211106
| 摘 要： | 电力变压器是电力系统中的核心设备，其健康状态关乎着电力系统的安全稳定运行，对变压器的健康程度和运行寿命进行准确评估和可靠预测，能够为变压器运维提供重要信息，降低运行成本和故障风险。本文提出一种多维劣度融合的变压器健康状态评估及寿命预测方法，首先分析影响变压器健康状态的多维指标，建立指标体系，并通过指标参数相对初始值的偏移来量化各维指标劣度；其次，分析各指标对变压器健康影响的程度，得出各维劣度对变压器健康影响的贡献权重，并考虑指标劣度变化对变压器健康影响的非线性，建立基于多维劣度非线性融合映射的变压器健康评估模型和寿命预测模型；最后，利用建立的数学模型，结合实例进行了变压器健康状态评估与寿命预测，结果表明该方法评估结果与实际相符，模型有效。 |
| 关 键 词： | 变压器; 健康状态评估; 寿命预测; 多维劣度 |
| DOI： | 10.57237/j.jest.2024.04.002 |
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收稿日期: 2024-08-05
接受日期: 2024-08-30
在线出版日期: 2024-09-09
Research on Transformer Health Status Assessment and Lifespan Prediction Based on Multidimensional Deterioration Fusion
1. Jubang Group Co., Ltd., Yueqing 325603, China
2. China Energy Engineering Group Anhui Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd., Hefei 230601, China
3. College of Automation Engineering, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
| Abstract: | Power transformer is the core equipment in the power system, and its health status concerns the safe and stable operation of power system. Accurately evaluating and reliably predicting on the health status and lifespan of the transformer can provide important information for transformer operation and maintenance, consequently reduce the cost and fault risk. This work proposes a multidimensional degradation fusion method for evaluating the health status and predict the lifespan of transformers. Firstly, the multidimensional indicators that affect the health status of transformers are analyzed, and thus an indicator system is established. The degradation of each indicator is quantified by calculating the deviation between the measurement value and the initial value. Secondly, we analyzed impacts of various indicators on the health of transformers, hence we obtained the contribution weights of each dimension of deterioration on the health of transformers. Furthermore, we considered the nonlinear impact of indicator deterioration changes on transformer health. Consequently, we established the transformer health assessment model and the lifespan prediction model based on multidimensional deterioration nonlinear fusion mapping. Finally, we took an example to evaluate the health status of a transformer by utilizing the established mathematical model. The results demonstrated that the evaluation results of this method were consistent with reality, and the model was effective. |
| Keywords: | Transformer; Health Status Evaluation; Lifespan Prediction; Multidimensional Deterioration |
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