吉林省人口结构对商品住宅价格的影响
延边大学, 数学系, 吉林延吉 133002
| 摘 要： | 近年来在国家一系列的房地产政策调控下，中国商品住房销售均价涨幅明显放缓。但是房地产市场依旧备受瞩目，房价高企，给老百姓的生活带来了沉重负担。由于人口是商品住房交易的参与主体，因此，本文运用VAR模型去探索人口结构对吉林省2005-2019年商品住宅价格的影响。本文选取6个人口结构变量，对数据处理后进行平稳性、协整检验，构建VAR模型，并进行稳定性检验和格兰杰因果关系检验，从而得出影响吉林省商品住宅价格的主要人口结构因素。最终对筛选出来的指标采用脉冲响应和方差分解方法分析各指标对吉林省商品住宅价格的影响程度。结果表明：家庭规模和城镇居民人均可支配收入因素皆会对吉林省商品住宅的价格产生一定影响；对于商品住宅的价格，家庭规模存在着较为长远的抑制作用，而城镇居民可支配的人均收入存在着较为长远的推动作用；在相对较短的时间里，主要影响商品住宅价格变化的要素为房价本身。基于研究结论，本文提出坚持限购、限贷等购房限制政策、提高城镇居民人均可支配收入、以及根据家庭规模合理调整住宅户型等建议。 |
| 关 键 词： | 人口结构; 商品住宅价格; VAR模型 |
| DOI： | 10.57237/j.wjeb.2024.01.001 |
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收稿日期: 2023-11-23
接受日期: 2023-12-27
在线出版日期: 2024-02-04
Study on the Influence of Population Structure on the Price of Commercial Housing in Jilin Province
Department of Mathematics, Yanbian University, Yanji 133002,
| Abstract: | In recent years, under a series of national real estate policies, the increase in the average sales price of commercial housing in China has slowed down significantly. However, the real estate market is still attracting attention. The high housing prices have brought a heavy burden to the lives of ordinary people. Since the population is the main participant in commercial housing transactions, this article attempts to use the VAR model from the perspective of population structure to explore its effect on the price of commercial housing in Jilin Province from 2005 to 2019. This article selects six population structure variables, performs stationarity and cointegration tests after data processing, builds a VAR model, and conducts stability tests and Granger causality tests, so as to obtain the main population structure that affects the price of commercial housing in Jilin Province factor. At last, impulse response and variance decomposition methods are used to analyze the impact of each index on the price of commercial housing in Jilin Province. The results show that the family size and the per capita disposable income of urban residents will have a certain impact on the price of commercial housing in Jilin Province. For the price of commercial housing, the family size has a relatively long-term inhibitory effect, while the disposable per capita income of urban residents has a relatively long-term promotion effect. In a relatively short period of time, the main factor affecting its changes is the housing price itself. Based on the research conclusions, this article puts forward suggestions such as adhering to house purchase restriction policies such as purchase restriction and loan restriction, increasing the per capita disposable income of urban residents, and reasonable adjustment of residential units according to the size of the family. |
| Keywords: | Population Structure; Commodity Housing Prices; VAR Model |
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